Interest rates. You hear about it on the news, your co-workers are talking about it, but what does it really matter? “The Fed”, short for “Federal Reserve Board”, is the central banking system of the U.S. They are the ones that control interest rates. It’s run by a board of seven people, called governors. The head honcho, currently Jerome Powell, is their spokesperson and leader. These people are appointment by the president, confirmed by the senate, and serve 14-year terms. More powerful than President Trump, Jerome has the ability to alter the economy drastically with one sentence. The Fed is a powerful beast, unchecked by other branches of government and in charge of how much money banks must have on-hand (reserve requirement) and interest rates.
If Interest Rates Go Up:
It costs more to borrow money. If you’re thinking about taking out a mortgage or car loan, this isn’t good news for you!
It encourages people to save. You’re more likely to put your money in an account that brings you a 5% return than a 3% return.
Why raise interest rates? The Fed wants to curb inflation and encourage sustainable employment. If it were free to borrow money, spending would be out of control and the cost of goods would go through the roof. Want to see what unregulated inflation looks like? Many third-world countries without a central bank experience massive inflation, as short-term success is prioritized over long-term stability. This is why $1 US Dollar is worth 70,000 Venezuelan Bolivars.
If Interest Rates Go Down:
It’s not that complicated, it’s just the opposite of what you just read. The Fed will lower interest rates if they want to stimulate the economy. This is why rates dipped so low in the post 2008 recession climate. In late 2012 they hovered at 3.35% for quite a while. Rates have been steadily creeping up over the past couple of years, but are still relatively low compared to historical benchmarks. Today, a 30-year fixed rate loan has a rate of 4.58%. In 1995, the same loan had a rate of over 9%, and in the 1980’s rates were in the 10-18% range. That makes for an expensive loan, but also leads to some nice interest payments if you have money in a bank account or CD. You can see why it would encourage less spending and more saving.
You can’t control interest rates, but as you borrow or invest money they will certainly impact you. If you hold bonds, you want interest rates to go down. This makes the interest rate on your bond more valuable in the marketplace. If you’re looking to make a large purchase that will require a loan, it’s a good time to do that when interest rates are low. This is why people refinance their home mortgage. This is done at a point where the cost of refinancing (fees, etc.) is less than the money they will save with their new loan. In summary, don’t stress over interest rates, but its probably a good idea to pay attention to them, or at least know what they mean for you.
Have a great week,
David